We use new data on manufacturing in Canada to quantify the impact of globalization on the growth and composition of industrialization in the second half of the nineteenth century. We find that industries and regions more exposed to international trade experienced faster growth. Consistent with...

We examine the generalizability of internally valid estimates of causal effects in a fixed population over time when that population is subject to aggregate shocks. This temporal external validity is shown to depend upon the distribution of the aggregate shocks and the interaction between these...

This paper studies optimal lockdown policies in a dynamic economy without government commitment. A lockdown imposes a cap on labor supply, which lowers economic output but improves health prospects. A government would like to commit to limit the extent of future lockdowns in order to increase...

We argue that political distribution risk is an important driver of aggregate fluctuations. To that end, we document significant changes in the capital share after large political events, such as political realignments, modifications in collective bargaining rules, or the end of dictatorships,...

Randomized controlled trials are increasingly used to evaluate policies. How can we make these experiments as useful as possible for policy purposes? We argue greater use should be made of experiments that identify behavioral mechanisms that are central to clearly specified policy questions,...

Technological change, from the advent of robots to expanded trade opportunities, tends to create winners and losers. How should government policy respond? And how should the overall welfare impact of technological change on society be valued? We provide a general theory of optimal technology...

We examine the effect of in-state and out-of-state renewable energy policies on wind energy patenting. Using a semiparametric fixed-effects Tobit model, we regress patent counts on a series of policy variables within a state and a spatially weighted average for each of these policies implemented...

The benefits of new technologies accrue not only to high-skilled labor but also to owners of capital in the form of higher capital incomes. This increases inequality. To make this argument, we develop a tractable theory that links technology to the personal income and wealth distributions - and...

How much economic value did the diffusion of broadband create? We provide benchmark estimates for 1999 to 2006. We observe $39 billion of total revenue in Internet access in 2006, with broadband accounting for $28 billion of this total. Depending on the estimate, households generated $20 to $22...

The changes in technology that took place in the US during the last three decades, mainly due to the introduction of computerization and automation, have been characterized as "routine-substituting." They have reduced the demand for routine tasks, but have increased the demand for analytical...