Stylized facts suggest that output volatility in OECD countries has declined in recent years. However, the causes and the nature of this decline have so far been analyzed mainly for the United States. In this paper, we analyze whether structural breaks in the dynamics and the volatility of the...

This paper proposes an approach for estimating the uncertainty associated with model-based macroeconomic forecasts. We argue that estimated forecast intervals should account for the uncertainty arising from selecting the specification of an empirical forecasting model from the sample data. To...

This paper is part of the project European Integration, Financial Systems and Corporate Performance (EIFC) carried out within the European Commission s specific programme Improving the Human Research Potential and the Socio-Economic Knowledge Base . Financial support from the European Union, DG...