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The great plunge in oil prices : causes, consequences, and policy responses

Baffes, John; Kose, M. Ayhan; Ohnsorge, Franziska; … - 2015

Following four years of relative stability at around $105 per barrel, oil prices have declined sharply since June 2014. This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the sources of the recent decline in prices, and examines its macroeconomic, financial and policy implications. The recent drop...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010512500

How does the sensitivity of consumption to income vary over time? : international evidence

Islamaj, Ergys; Kose, M. Ayhan - 2016

This paper studies how the sensitivity of consumption to income has changed over time as the degree of financial integration has risen. In standard theory, greater financial integration facilitates international borrowing and lending, helping to reduce the sensitivity of consumption growth to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011457468

Global Business Cycles : Convergence or Decoupling?

Kose, M. Ayhan - 2008

This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups -- industrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464278

Determinants of Deposit-Insurance Adoption and Design

Demirguc-Kunt, Asli - 2007

This paper identifies factors that influence decisions about a country's financial safety net, using a comprehensive dataset covering 180 countries during the 1960-2003 period. Our analysis focuses on how private interest-group pressures, outside influences, and political-institutional factors...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465794

Inflation Targeting and Sudden Stops

Caballero, Ricardo J. - 2003

Emerging economies experience sudden stops in capital inflows. As we have argued in Caballero and Krishnamurthy (2002), having access to monetary policy during these sudden stops is useful, but mostly for insurance' rather than for aggregate demand reasons. In this environment, a central bank...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469099

How Country and Safety-Net Characteristics Affect Bank Risk-Shifting

Hovakimian, Armen - 2002

insurance has had adverse effects in environments that are low in political and economic freedom and high in corruption …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469384

Creative Destruction and Development : Institutions, Crises, and Restructuring

Caballero, Ricardo J. - 2000

There is increasing empirical evidence that creative destruction, driven by experimentation and the adoption of new products and processes when investment is sunk, is a core mechanism of development. Obstacles to this process are likely to be obstacles to the progress in standards of living....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470894

Global recessions

Kose, M. Ayhan; Sugawara, Naotaka; Terrones, Marco E. - 2020

The world economy has experienced four global recessions over the past seven decades: in 1975, 1982, 1991, and 2009 …, with severe economic and financial disruptions in many countries around the world. The 2009 global recession, set off by …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012159612

Global macro-financial cycles and spillovers

Ha, Jongrim; Kose, M. Ayhan; Otrok, Christopher M.; … - 2020 - This version: February 2020

We develop a new dynamic factor model that allows us to jointly characterize global macroeconomic and financial cycles and the spillovers between them. The model decomposes macroeconomic cycles into the part driven by global and country-specific macro factors and the part driven by spillovers...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012170616

World Shocks, World Prices, and Business Cycles : An Empirical Investigation

Fernández, Andrés - 2016

intratemporal relative price such as the terms of trade and possibly an intertemporal price such as the world interest rate. This … paper presents an empirical framework in which multiple commodity prices and the world interest rate transmit world … disturbances. Estimates on a panel of 138 countries over the period 1960-2015 indicate that world shocks explain on average 33 …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012455847