The standalone structural exchange rate risk depends on the product of the future foreign currency earning and the change in the exchange rate. Its Value-at-Risk (VaR) implying an extremely high survival probability, usually exceeding 99.9%, is used in practice to determine its economic capital....

Many models in economics involve probabilistic choices where each decision-maker selects the best alternative from a finite set. Viewing the value of each alternative as a random variable, the analyst is then interested in the choice probabilities, that is, the probability for an alternative to...

Many models in economics involve probabilistic choices where each decision-maker selects the best alternative from a finite set. Viewing the value of each alternative as a random variable, the analyst is then interested in the choice probabilities, that is, the probability for an alternative to...

In this paper an alternative non-parametric historical simulation approach, the Mixing Unconditional Disturbances model with constant volatility, where price paths are generated by reshuffling disturbances for S&P 500 Index returns over the period 1950 - 1998, is used to estimate a Generalized...

In spite of the widespread use of generalized additive models (GAMs), there is no well established methodology for simultaneous inference and variable selection for the components of GAM. There is no doubt that both, inference on the marginal component functions and their selection, are...

Longitudinal data analysis is a central piece of statistics. The data are curves and they are observed at random locations. This makes the construction of a simultaneous confidence corridor (SCC) (confidence band) for the mean function a challenging task on both the theoretical and the practical...

This article reviews two leading measures of financial risk and an emerging alternative. Embraced by the Basel accords, value-at-risk and expected shortfall are the leading measures of financial risk. Expectiles offset the weaknesses of value-at-risk (VaR) and expected shortfall. Indeed,...

A functional ARMA-GARCH model for predicting the value-at-risk of the EURUSD exchange rate is introduced. The model implements the yield curve differentials between EUR and the US as exogenous factors. Functional principal component analysis allows us to use the information of basically the...

This paper studies the optimal investment and consumption strategies in a two-asset model. A dynamic Value-at-Risk constraint is imposed to manage the wealth process. By using Value at Risk as the risk measure during the investment horizon, the decision maker can dynamically monitor the exposed...

We explore the Monte Carlo steps required to reduce the sampling error of the estimated 99.9% quantile within an acceptable threshold. Our research is of primary interest to practitioners working in the area of operational risk measurement, where the annual loss distribution cannot be...