An alternative theoretical setting is presented to characterise the money demand and the monetary equilibrium. Two main hypotheses are stated that contradict the assumptions normally sustained by scholars and policy-makers: National output is assumed to be a random variable, and people are...

The R word has begun to appear in the media again bringing with it three technical questions viz, How will we know we are in recession? How will we know when it has ended? And How can we forecast its onset and ending? This paper does not provide answers to these questions rather it focuses on...

We present empirical evidence on the business cycle relationship between nominal and real effective exchange rate, real GDP, consumption, investment, export, import and general government debt for a group of ten countries from the Central and Eastern Europe. We apply cross-correlation on...

This paper presents a univariate model that analyzes systematic changes in the behavior of the business cycle in the Dominican Republic, capturing changes in average growth and identifying differences between contractions and expansions with respect to their persistence and duration. To do so,...

Using the annual data of real GDP from 1970 to 2010, this paper examines the synchronization of business cycles in the WAEMU. Two methods are used. First we calculate the cross correlations between cyclical components of real GDP of the different economies of the Union. The study then evaluate...

This paper examines the determinants of output growth differentials from set convergence criteria in a panel of West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) states. Drawing largely from micro-founded models, rooted in New Keynesian traditions, the study shows that widespread divergence of output growth...

Theory suggests that endogenous borrowing constraints amplify the impact of external shocks on the economy. How big is the amplification? In this paper, we quantitatively investigate this question in the context of a dynamic general equilibrium model with borrowing constraints under two...

The ultimate objective of this paper is to discuss the duration of business cycles and the related issue of the probability of recession. To reach that objective it is necessary to first agree on a definition of business cycles. It is also necessary to agree on how to define the key features of...

Recent events suggest that the death of the business cycle has been exaggerated; the issue of how one learns about and monitors the business cycle remains centre stage. Advent of the Euro and the potential for tensions when sovereign nations subsume their monetary policy into a single response...

For U.S. firms from 1988 to 2007, firms with stricter loan covenants had higher firm-level default recovery rates. Covenants were stricter, moreover, when set during downturns in the business cycle. This implies a negative dependence of recovery rates on lagged macroeconomic conditions. That is,...