The creation of the euro should now be recognized as an experiment that has led to the sovereign debt crisis in several countries, the fragile condition of major European banks, the high levels of unemployment, and the large trade deficits that now exist in most Eurozone countries. Although the...

This paper examines the four most important potential economic crises that the United Stares fared in the 1980s in order to see what lessons can be drawn, individually and collectively, from these experiences: (1) the-developing country debt crisis; (2) the 1907 stork marker crash; (3) failures...

This paper is an analytic comment on two chapters of the Economic Report of the President for 2006. Chapter One deals with the economy in 2005 and the outlook for the future. The chapter provides a detailed analysis of the expansion in 2005 but not an explanation of why the expansion occurred...

The problems involved in estimating real output that I discuss in this paper cause the official government statistics to underestimate of the rates of growth of real GDP, real personal income, and productivity. That underestimation is important not just to economists trying to understand where...

Although the official statistics imply that the rate of growth of real GDP in the United States has declined in recent years, it has still been substantially higher than the real growth rates in Europe and the other industrial countries, leading to higher real per capita incomes. This paper...

The level of productivity doubled in the U.S. nonfarm business sector between 1970 and 2006. Wages, or more accurately total compensation per hour, increased at approximately the same annual rate during that period if nominal compensation is adjusted for inflation in the same way as the nominal...

This paper examines the likely growth of U.S. GDP in the decade beginning in 2010. I analyze the two components of the rise in GDP over this ten year period: (1) the recovery from the substantially depressed level of economic activity at the start of the decade; and (2) the rise in potential GDP that...

Any arrangement that is to serve as a long-term framework for international debt management must permit a politically acceptable rate of economic growth in the debtor countries while gradually improving the financial positions of the creditor banks. In addition, a realistic debt management...

This paper examines the sources of current conflict within the EU and the EMU. The topics discussed include the recent ECB policy of bond buying (the OMT policy), the attempts to advance the "European Project" of stronger political union (the fiscal compact, the banking union, and the proposals...

This paper was prepared for a session of the 2009 American Economic Association meeting devoted to examining the views of American economists about the euro and the European Economic and Monetary Union on the tenth anniversary of the euro. I had written an article in 1992 in the Economist and...