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Global Business Cycles : Convergence or Decoupling?

Kose, M. Ayhan - 2008

This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups -- industrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464278

Long-Run Risks and Financial Markets

Bansal, Ravi - 2007

The recently developed long-run risks asset pricing model shows that concerns about long-run expected growth and time-varying uncertainty (i.e., volatility) about future economic prospects drive asset prices. These two channels of economic risks can account for the risk premia and asset price...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465457

Determinants of Deposit-Insurance Adoption and Design

Demirguc-Kunt, Asli - 2007

This paper identifies factors that influence decisions about a country's financial safety net, using a comprehensive dataset covering 180 countries during the 1960-2003 period. Our analysis focuses on how private interest-group pressures, outside influences, and political-institutional factors...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465794

Inflation Targeting and Sudden Stops

Caballero, Ricardo J. - 2003

Emerging economies experience sudden stops in capital inflows. As we have argued in Caballero and Krishnamurthy (2002), having access to monetary policy during these sudden stops is useful, but mostly for insurance' rather than for aggregate demand reasons. In this environment, a central bank...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469099

How Country and Safety-Net Characteristics Affect Bank Risk-Shifting

Hovakimian, Armen - 2002

insurance has had adverse effects in environments that are low in political and economic freedom and high in corruption …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469384

Creative Destruction and Development : Institutions, Crises, and Restructuring

Caballero, Ricardo J. - 2000

There is increasing empirical evidence that creative destruction, driven by experimentation and the adoption of new products and processes when investment is sunk, is a core mechanism of development. Obstacles to this process are likely to be obstacles to the progress in standards of living....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470894

Climate Change and Growth Risks

Bansal, Ravi - 2016

To study the welfare implications of rising temperature we propose a temperature-augmented long-run risks model that accounts for the interaction between temperature, economic growth and risk. The model simultaneously matches the projected temperature path, the observed consumption growth...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012455671

World Shocks, World Prices, and Business Cycles : An Empirical Investigation

Fernández, Andrés - 2016

intratemporal relative price such as the terms of trade and possibly an intertemporal price such as the world interest rate. This … paper presents an empirical framework in which multiple commodity prices and the world interest rate transmit world … disturbances. Estimates on a panel of 138 countries over the period 1960-2015 indicate that world shocks explain on average 33 …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012455847

Price of Long-Run Temperature Shifts in Capital Markets

Bansal, Ravi - 2016

We use the forward-looking information from the US and global capital markets to estimate the economic impact of global warming, specifically, long-run temperature shifts. We find that global warming carries a positive risk premium that increases with the level of temperature and that has almost...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456150

Global Cycles : Capital Flows, Commodities, and Sovereign Defaults, 1815-2015

Reinhart, Carmen M. - 2016

Capital flow and commodity cycles have long been connected with economic crises. Sparse historical data, however, has made it difficult to connect their timing. We date turning points in global capital flows and commodity prices across two centuries and provide estimates from alternative data...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456715