I show that stochastic contracts generate powerful incentives when agents suffer from probability distortion. When implementing these contracts, the principal can target probability distortions in order to inflate the agent's perceived benefits of exerting high levels of effort. This novel...

A representative consumer uses Bayes' law to learn about parameters of several models and to construct probabilities with which to perform ongoing model averaging. The arrival of signals induces the consumer to alter his posterior distribution over models and parameters. The consumer's...

We use unique data from the Berea Panel Study to characterize how much earnings uncertainty is present for students at college entrance and how quickly this uncertainty is resolved. We characterize uncertainty using survey questions that elicit the entire distribution describing one’s beliefs...

We consider the decomposition of shocks to a dynamic process into a persistent and a transitory component. Without additional assumptions (such as zero correlation) the decomposition of shocks into a persistent and transitory component is indeterminate. The assumption that is conventional in the...

Precautionary pricing and increasing markups in representative-agent DSGE models with nominal rigidities are commonly used to generate negative output effects of uncertainty shocks. We assess whether this theoretical model channel is consistent with the data. Three things stand out. First,...

In Merton (1987), idiosyncratic risk is priced in equilibrium as a consequence of incomplete diversification. We modify his model to allow the degree of diversification to vary with average idiosyncratic volatility. This simple recognition results in a state-dependent idiosyncratic risk premium...

This paper aims to fill the gaps in the analysis of risk‐sharing channels at the microlevel, both within and across households. Using data from the Bank of Italy's Survey on Household Income and Wealth covering the financial crisis, we are able to quantify in a unified and consistent framework...

This paper compares different solution methods for computing the equilibrium of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models with rare disasters along the lines of those proposed by Rietz (1988), Barro (2006), Gabaix (2012), and Gourio (2012). DSGE models with rare disasters require...

This paper assesses the quantitative impact of ambiguity on historically observed financial asset returns and growth rates. The single agent, in a dynamic exchange economy, treats the conditional uncertainty about the consumption and dividends next period as ambiguous. We calibrate the agent's...