Proponents of fiscal stimulus argue that government spending is needed to replace the private spending normally lost during a recession. Estimates of the so-called fiscal multiplier based on wartime episodes are used to support the proposition that a peacetime intervention can "stimulate" the...

This article is a reprint of a speech given by William Poole, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, to the St. Louis Gateway Chapter of the National Association for Business Economics. In today's environment economic uncertainties abound both abroad and at home. In this article the...