The statistical techniques which cover the process of modeling and evaluating consumer credit risk have become widely accepted instruments in risk management. In contrast, we find only few and vague statements on how to define the default event, i. e. on the concrete circumstances that lead to...

In this paper we propose a new tool for backtesting that examines the quality of Value-at- Risk (VaR) forecasts. To date, the most distinguished regression-based backtest, proposed by Engle and Manganelli (2004), relies on a linear model. However, in view of the di- chotomic character of the...

The study of tail events has become a central preoccupation for academics, investors and policy makers, given the recent financial turmoil. However, what differentiates a crash from a tail event? This article answers this question by taking a risk management perspective that is based on an...

The statistical techniques which cover the process of modeling and evaluating consumer credit risk have become widely accepted instruments in risk management. In contrast, we find only few and vague statements on how to define the default event, i. e. on the concrete circumstances that lead to...

This paper proposes a new test of Value at Risk (VaR) validation. Our test exploits the idea that the sequence of VaR violations (Hit function) - taking value 1-α, if there is a violation, and -α otherwise - for a nominal coverage rate α verifies the properties of a martingale difference if...