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We test the menu cost model of Ball and Mankiw (1994, 1995) on data from the inflation and deflation periods in Japan … during both inflation and deflation, is strongly supported. The data are less clear on, but does not reject, the hypothesis … that the parameter on the standard deviation changes sign between inflation and deflation periods. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010957306
The classical definition of inflation refers to increasing the quantity of money in circulation. However, in everyday … language, inflation is seen rather through the effects of monetary expansion, i.e. increasing prices. Therefore, the term … “inflation” generates a semantic confusion, for which could be responsible the omnipresence of consumer price index (CPI) in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010965606
For decades, the academic literature has focused on three survey measures of expected inflation: the Livingston Survey … models of forecasting inflation, the data are low frequency measures which appear anachronistic in the modern era of high … frequency and real-time data. I present a collection of 37 different measures of inflation expectations, including many …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009647457
understanding of and expand research on this topic. Given the importance of the People’s Republic of China, Japan, and the United …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011096824
Supervisors and policy makers pay increasing attention to the possible procyclical nature of banks' behaviour. Indeed, to guarantee macro and financial stability, it is important to understand whether, and to what extent, banks are affected by the macroeconomy and second round effects occur....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012732813
This paper uses two affine term structure models from the Duffie-Kan class - a three-factor Cox-Ingersoll-Ross model, and a three-factor model in the spirit of Longstaff and Schwartz - to extract historical estimates of foreign exchange risk premia for the pound with respect to the US dollar....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012733899
, inflation persistence has been the exception, rather than the rule, with inflation estimated to have been highly persistent only … during the period between the floating of the pound, in June 1972, and the introduction of inflation targeting, in October … inflation and the rates of growth of both narrow and broad monetary aggregates at the very low frequencies, thus countering the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012733900
This paper measures the welfare gain from removing aggregate consumption fluctuations starting from an economy in which each individual faces both aggregate and idiosyncratic income shocks, and incomplete consumption insurance. We show that, because this welfare gain is a convex function of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012736145
It is well known that historically a larger number of firms issue common stock and the proportion of external financing accounted for by equity is substantially higher in expansionary phases of the business cycle. We show that this phenomenon is consistent with firms selling seasoned equity when...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012780092
Expectations matter for economic activity. To the extent that they are fundamentally unwarranted, they represent "undue optimism or pessimism" (Pigou, 1927). In this paper, we identify empirically the effect of undue optimism/pessism ("optimism shocks") on economic activity. In a first step, we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010986006