This paper extends the results of Gadkari and Spindel (Solomon Brothers 1989), Hauser and Levy (JBE v.43, 1991), and Leibowitz, Bader, and Kogelman (JFI v.3, 1993) who show that hedging currency risk converts some or all of the foreign-held claims to synthetic domestic claims. Fixed-income asset...

To control for product quality and exchange rate effects, we use the Japanese regional data to study the Penn effect – the positive relationship between price and income levels. Comparable with the evidence from international data, the Penn effect is significant in the Japanese prefectural...

In this study, we begin by assessing the ability of sovereign credit ratings to anticipate crises. In addition, given the wave of sovereign credit ratings downgrades that have followed the crises in Asia, we investigate formally the extent to which credit ratings are reactive. Along the way, we...

In focusing on the 24 month window prior to the onset of the crisis, the criteria for ranking the indicators presented in our related work does not distinguish between a signal given 12 months prior to the crisis and one given one month prior to the crisis. In what follows we examine this issue,...

Predicting the timing of currency and banking crises is likely to remain an elusive task for academics, financial market participants, and policymakers. Few foresaw the Asian crises and fewer still could have imagined their severity. However, recent events have highlighted the importance of...

The signals approach was applied to 24 of the indicators around the dates of the 29 banking and the 87 currency crises. In what follows, we first compare our results for the 15 original indicators in Kaminsky and Reinhart (1996) to those presented in that study. This exercise assesses the...

This paper provides a critical analysis of Kaminsky and Reinhart (1999) (KR), perhaps the most prominent empirical paper on causes of currency crises. After dealing with problems present in this paper, it proposes an aggregate leading indicator of crisis. The proposed indicator performs better...

We examine the empirical determinants of the demand for international reserves and compare the experiences of some Asian and Latin American economies. Our empirical results indicate that different vintages of the model of international reserves give different inferences about the appropriate...

The European and Asian financial crises are the two most recent major regional crises. This paper compares their origins and evolution. The origins of the two sets of crises were different in some respects, but broadly similar. The two sets of crises also shared similarities in their evolution,...

This study empirically examines how exchange rate shocks affect firms’ competitiveness in the small, export-oriented country of Finland. Specifically, using Sweden as a benchmark and controlling for cross-country sector and industry effects, the forex competition hypothesis is tested using the...