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An analysis of systematic risk in worldwide econonomic sentiment indices

Luu, Duc Thi; Yanovski, Boyan; Lux, Thomas - 2018 - Ver. January 2, 2018

tools of Random Matrix Theory (RMT) and Principal Component Analysis (PCA), our paper aims to extract latent information … embedded in the interactions between economic and business sentiment indices around the world. We find that: (i) The dynamics … collapse of the US housing market in 2007, can lead to a homogenization of the expectation structure around the world, as such …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011790790

Modeling and forecasting crude oil price volatility : evidence from historical and recent data

Lux, Thomas; Segnon, Mawuli; Gupta, Rangan - 2015

This paper uses the Markov-switching multifractal (MSM) model and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH)-type models to forecast oil price volatility over the time periods from January 02, 1875 to December 31, 1895 and from January 03, 1977 to March 24, 2014. Based on...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010488966

Bringing an elementary agent-based model to the data : estimation via GMM and an application to forecasting of asset price volatility

Ghonghadze, Jaba; Lux, Thomas - 2015

We explore the issue of estimating a simple agent-based model of price formation in an asset market using the approach of Alfarano et al. (2008) as an example. Since we are able to derive various moment conditions for this model, we can apply generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation. We...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010501932

Modeling and forecasting carbon dioxide emission allowance spot price volatility : multifractal vs. GARCH-type volatility models

Segnon, Mawuli; Lux, Thomas; Gupta, Rangan - 2015

This paper applies Markov-switching multifractal (MSM) processes to model and forecast carbon dioxide (CO2) emission price volatility, and compares their forecasting performance to the standard GARCH, fractionally integrated GARCH (FIGARCH) and the two-state Markov-switching GARCH (MS-GARCH)...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011296114

Inference for nonlinear state space models : a comparison of different methods applied to Markov-switching multifractal models

Lux, Thomas - 2018

Nonlinear, non-Gaussian state space models have found wide applications in many areas. Since such models usually do not allow for an analytical representation of their likelihood function, sequential Monte Carlo or particle filter methods are mostly applied to estimate their parameters. Since...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011891373

The multi-fractal model of asset returns : its estimation via GMM and its use for volatility forecasting

Lux, Thomas (contributor) - 2003 - [Elektronische Ressource]

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001781206

Detecting multi-fractal properties in asset returns : the failure of the "scaling estimator"

Lux, Thomas (contributor) - 2003 - [Elektronische Ressource]

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001781208

The Markov-switching multi-fractal model of asset returns : GMM estimation and linear forecasting of volatility

Lux, Thomas (contributor) - 2004 - [Elektronische Ressource],rev

Multi-fractal processes have recently been proposed as a new formalism for modelling the time series of returns in finance. The major attraction of these processes is their ability to generate various degrees of long memory in different powers of returns - a feature that has been found in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10002468813

Stochastic behavioral asset pricing models and the stylized facts

Lux, Thomas - 2008

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008856295

Stochastic behavioral asset pricing models and the stylized facts

Lux, Thomas (contributor) - 2008

High-frequency financial data are characterized by a set of ubiquitous statistical properties that prevail with surprising uniformity. While these 'stylized facts' have been well-known for decades, attempts at their behavioral explanation have remained scarce. However, recently a new branch of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003721495