Der 2009 im Handel durchgeführte "Test des Tests" durchlief bis zur endgültigen Version verschiedene Konzeptionsphasen. Zunächst wurden die Fragebögen der früheren Meta-Umfragen als Orientierungsmaßstab insbesondere hinsichtlich Zielvorstellung, Wortlaut und Umfang herangezogen und auf die...

Business cycle indicators are used to assess the economic situation of countries or regions. They are closely watched by the public, but are not easy to interpret. Does a current movement of the indicator signal a turning point or not? With the help of Markov Switching Models movements of...

Investment in equipment and machinery is a very important component of GDP. In this paper we examine whether data from business tendency sur- veys are useful for a timely assessment of current investment behavior. In addition we investigate whether the survey results are helpful for forecasting...

Business tendency surveys are a commonly accepted instrument for the assessment of the current business cycle course. Most of these surveys rely on qualitative questions about the current situation of the firms and about heir expectations for the next months. This paper analyzes whether...

Results from business tendency surveys are often used to construct leading indicators. The indicators are then, for example, employed to forecast GDP growth. In this article more detailed results of business tendency surveys are used to forecast quarter-on-quarter GDP growth. The target series...

The accuracy of macroeconomic forecast depends on various factors, most importantly the mix of analytical methods used by the individual forecasters, the way that their personal experience is shaping their identification strategies, but also their efficiency in translating new information into...

The IFO Business Climate is the most important indicator for the business cycle in Germany. In 1993 the connection between the two components of the business climate – business situation and business expectations – was graphically portrayed by Ifo in a 4-quadrant scheme: the IFO Business...

Business cycle indicators are used to assess the economic situation of countries or regions. They are closely watched by the public, but are not easy to interpret. Does a current movement of the indicator signal a turning point or not? With the help of Markov Switching Models movements of...

Business climate indicators are used to receive early signals for turning points in the general business cycle. Therefore methods for the detection of turning points in time series are required. Estimations of slopes of a smooth component in the data can be calculated with local polynomial...

Einmal pro Quartal befragt das ifo Institut im Rahmen seiner laufenden Konjunkturumfragen die Unternehmen im Verarbeitenden Gewerbe, ob eine Produktionsbehinderung besteht und wenn ja, ob sich die Firmen eher vorgegebenen Angebots- oder Nachfragebeschränkungen gegenübersehen. Der vorliegende...