We use a Panel Smooth Transition Regression (STR) model to study nonlinearities in the expectationformation process in the US stock market. To this end, we use data from the Livingston survey to investigate how the importance of regressive and extrapolative expectations fluctuates over time as...

This paper examines the pattern of employment adjustment in Portugal. First, the issue is addressed using a long time series of aggregate data. Although the employment data show persistence, there is nonetheless a fairly rapid rate of employment adjustment. Second, a much shorter time series of...

This paper examines the pattern of employment adjustment in Portugal. First, the issue is addressed using a long time series of aggregate data. Although the employment data show persistence, there is nonetheless a fairly rapid rate of employment adjustment. Second, a much shorter time series of...

This paper examines the pattern of employment adjustment in Portugal. First, the issue is addressed using a long time series of aggregate data. Although the employment data show persistence, there is nonetheless a fairly rapid rate of employment adjustment. Second, a much shorter time series of...

This paper examines the pattern of employment adjustment in Portugal. First, the issue is addressed using a long time series of aggregate data. Although the employment data show persistence, there is nonetheless a fairly rapid rate of employment adjustment. Second, a much shorter time series of...

We report results on the ex ante predictability of monthly excess stock returns in Germany using real-time and revised macroeconomic data. Our real-time macroeconomic data cover the period 1994-2005. We report three results. 1) Real-time macroeconomic data did not contribute much to ex ante...

Models recently studied by Farmer (2012, 2013, 2015) predict that, due to labor-market frictions and "animal spirits", stock-market fluctuations should Granger cause fluctuations of the unemployment rate. We performed several Granger-causality tests on more than half a century of data of German...