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Sovereign risk dynamics in the EU : the time varying relevance of fiscal and external (im)balances

Afonso, António; Alves, José; Monteiro, Sofia - 2024

Acknowledging the potential detrimental impact that twin-deficits may have on sovereign risk, this study uses a two-step approach to assess the impact of fiscal and external sustainability on sovereign risk dynamics for a panel of 27 European Economies between 2001Q4 and 2022Q3. To do so, we...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014486806

Euro Area Sovereign Debt Crisis and Debt Mutualisation

Afonso, António - 2016

We study debt mutualisation in the Euro area. Bearing in mind other existing proposals we provide an alternative Blue, Yellow and Red Bonds proposal: blue, would cover debt up to 60% of GDP, yellow would include debt from 60% up to 90% of GDP, and red would cover debt above 90% of GDP. Although...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012999299

The Determinants of Sovereign Bond Yield Spreads in the EMU

Afonso, António - 2015

We use a panel of euro area countries to assess the determinants of long-term sovereign bond yield spreads over the period 1999.01-2010.12. We find that, on top of the fundamentals themselves, changes in the sensitivity of bond prices to fundamentals are also necessary to explain yields over the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013021991

The determinants of sovereign bond yield spreads in the EMU

Afonso, António (contributor); … - European Central Bank - 2015

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015298905

EMU's decentralized system of fiscal policy

Hagen, Jürgen von (contributor); … - European Commission / Directorate-General for Economic … - 2008

This paper reviews the macroeconomic use of national fiscal policy in EMU and examines the rational and scope for a collective insurance system which redistributes income among countries in response to asymmetric cyclical shocks. The analysis of the record of national fiscal policies before and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015314322

Unconventional Monetary Policy in the Euro Area. Impacts on Loans, Employment, and Investment

Afonso, António; Pereira, Francisco Gomes - 2022

Using a difference-in-differences identification strategy on a micro panel at the bank and firm level, we study the transmission effectiveness of ECB’s large-scale asset purchasing programs programs (i.e. APP and PEPP) in the Euro area. Our findings show: first, balance sheet composition of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013296738

The ECB's pandemic emergency purchase programme and fiscal policy : synergies or conflict?

Afonso, António; Ferreira, Jorge Braga - 2025

Eurozone countries. We consider the PEPP net purchases by country, and the fiscal policy is measured through changes in debt …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015397021

The role of fiscal policies for external imbalances : evidence from the European Union

Afonso, António; Coelho, José Carlos - 2021

two deficits is asymmetric and the negative impact of the recent Eurozone banking and sovereign debt crisis on the current … positive impact of the budget balance on the current account balance is higher in the cases of non-Eurozone countries, high … budget deficit countries, and low exports countries, whereas it is lower in the cases of Eurozone countries, low budget …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012504606

Twin deficits through the looking glass : time-varying analysis in the euro area

Afonso, António; Coelho, José Carlos - 2022

Using two measures of the fiscal position, the cyclically adjusted primary budget balance (CAPB) and the total budget balance, we assess the Twin Deficit Hypothesis for the Euro Area in the period 1995-2020. Furthermore, we estimate time-varying coefficients of the current account balance...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012813893

Fiscal sustainability, fiscal reactions, pitfalls and determinants

Afonso, António; Coelho, José Carlos - 2022

We examine the sustainability of public finances and its determinants for 19 Eurozone countries from 1995 to 2020. We …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013162289