We present a stochastic simulation forecasting model for stress testing that is aimed at assessing banks’ capital adequacy, financial fragility, and probability of default. The paper provides a theoretical presentation of the methodology and the essential features of the forecasting model on...

The aim of this work is to introduce an innovative methodology for performing risk attribution within a multifactor risk framework. We applied this analysis to the assessment of systemic, climate, and geopolitical risks relative to a representative sample of Eurozone banks between 2011 and 2022....

The latest financial crisis has stressed the need of understanding the world financial system as a network of interconnected institutions, where financial linkages play a fundamental role in the spread of systemic risks. In this paper we propose to enrich the topological perspective of network...

The paper examines the relationships among market assets during stressful times, using two recently proposed econometric modeling techniques for tail risk measurement: the extreme downside hedge (EDH) and the extreme downside correlation (EDC). We extend both measures taking into account the...

We present a stochastic simulation forecasting model to stress-test banks' capital adequacy and to estimate probability of infringement of regulatory capital ratios and default probability. The stochastic methodology proposed is based on a simplified reduced model that provides a manageable...

We present a stochastic simulation model for estimating forward-looking corporate probability of default and loss given default. We formulate the model in a discrete time frame, apply capital-budgeting techniques to define the relationships that identify the default condition, and solve the...

The recent evolution of prudential regulation establishes a new requirement for banks and supervisors to perform reverse stress test exercises in their risk assessment processes, aimed at detecting default or near-default scenarios. We propose a reverse stress test methodology based on a...

This paper extends the extreme downside correlation (EDC) and extreme downside hedge (EDH) methodology to model the interdependence in the sensitivity of assets to the downside risk of other financial assets under severe firm-level and market conditions. The model is applied to analyze both...