We compared forecasts of stock market volatility based on real-time and revised macroeconomic data. To this end, we … used a new dataset on monthly real-time macroeconomic variables for Germany. The dataset covers the period 1994-2005. We … used a statistical, a utility-based, and an options-based criterion to evaluate volatility forecasts. Our main result is …

We compared forecasts of stock market volatility based on real-time and revised …

A rapidly growing literature has documented important improvements in volatility measurement and forecasting … provides a practical framework for non-parametrically measuring the jump component in realized volatility measurements … an easy-to-implement reduced form model for realized volatility results in highly significant jump coefficient estimates …

We exploit direct model-free measures of daily equity return volatility and correlation obtained from high …, solidify and extend existing characterizations of stock return volatility and correlation. We find that the unconditional … portfolio diversification when the market is most volatile. Our findings are broadly consistent with a latent volatility fact or …

This paper develops mew robust inference procedures for analyzing the intraday return volatility patterns that …, Lyons, and Melvin (1998) (ILM) argue that this deregulation resulted in a highly significant shift in the volatility pattern …