not the case. Although unemployment is low, the labor market is not 'tight'. On the contrary, we show that what matters …, just as in the Great Recession we anticipate deflation in the near future, coupled with rising joblessness and recession. …

Unemployment is notoriously difficult to predict. In previous studies, once country and year fixed effects are added to … panel estimates, few variables predict changes in unemployment rates. Using panel data for 29 European countries collected … just over 10000 observations, we predict changes in the unemployment rate 12 months ahead. We do so using individuals …

-taken to support the hypothesis that high rates of homeownership lead to high unemploy-ment via increases in the reservation …

Unemployment is notoriously difficult to predict. In previous studies, once country and year fixed effects are added to … panel estimates, few variables predict changes in unemployment rates. Using panel data for 29 European countries collected … just over 10000 observations, we predict changes in the unemployment rate 12 months ahead. We do so using individuals …

The persistence of high unemployment has been one of the most puzzling developments of the past twenty years or so. In … the UK, unemployment averaged 2.1% between 1966 and 1973, and since 1974 it has risen to an average of 7.5%. The … prevailing view of the persistence of unemployment and of the continuous rise in the NAIRU is that explanations and solutions can …