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Empirical macromodels under test : a comparative simulation study of the employment effects of a revenue neutral cut in social security contributions

Buscher, Herbert S.; Buslei, Hermann; Göggelmann, Klaus; … - 1998 - Preliminary version

In the paper we simulate a revenue-neutral cut in the social security contribution rate using five different types of macro- / microeconomic models, namely two models based on time-series data where the labour market is modelled basically demand oriented, two models of the class of computable...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011442295

Lasso-type and heuristic strategies in model selection and forecasting

Savin, Ivan; Winker, Peter - 2012

. The two strategies are compared by means of a Monte-Carlo simulation study together with an empirical application to …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009630302

Quasi-Monte Carlo methods in stochastic simulations : an application to fiscal policy simulations using an aggregate disequilibrium model of the West German economy 1960-1994

Franz, Wolfgang; Göggelmann, Klaus; Schellhorn, Martin; … - 1998

Different stochastic simulation methods are used in order to check the robustness of the outcome of policy simulations … possible margin. Because of nonlinearities confidence intervals for the simulation results have to be obtained by means of … stochastic simulations. The main contribution of this paper consists in presenting the simulation results. The robustness of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011441040

Investment and employment adjustment after unification : some results from a macroeconometric disequilibrium model

Radowski, Daniel; Smolny, Werner; Winker, Peter - 1999

The macroeconomic development in West Germany in the aftermath of unification was characterized by a boom period in 1990/1991, a deep recession in 1992/1993 and a slow recovery since then. In East Germany, in contrast, unification induced a breakdown of production and employment followed by a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013428281

Modeling German unification in a disequilibrium framework

Winker, Peter; Smolny, Werner; Radowski, Daniel - 1999

Unification fundamentally changed the terms of quantitative macroeconomic analysis for Germany. Two main areas concerned are data availability for the eastern part of Germany and structural changes within the behavioural equations after unification. Our paper presents results from the estimation...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013428286

Investment and employment adjustment after unification : some results from a macroeconometric disequilibrium model

Radowski, Daniel; Smolny, Werner; Winker, Peter - 1999

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011443447

Modeling German unification in a disequilibrium framework

Winker, Peter; Smolny, Werner; Radowski, Daniel - 1999

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011443482

Stochastic simulations of a macroeconomic disequilibrium model for West Germany

Schellhorn, Martin; Winker, Peter - 1994

allows the conclusion to be drawn that notwithstanding the non-linearities and dynamic features the Simulation properties of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009774716

Migratory movements in a disequilibrium macroeconometric model for West Germany

Franz, Wolfgang; Oser, Ursula; Winker, Peter - 1993

. Extending the model until 1995 a Simulation experiment concerning this inflow is carried out, too. The upshot of the econometric …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009743278

Application of threshold accepting to the evaluation of the discrepancy of a set of points

Winker, Peter; Fang, Kaitai - 1995

Efficient routines for multidimensional numerical integration are provided by quasi-Monte Carlo methods. These methods are based on evaluating the integrand at a set of representative points of the integration area. A set may be called representative if it shows a low discrepancy. However, in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009774691