Using the Markowitz mean-variance portfolio optimization theory, researchers have shown that the traditional estimated return greatly overestimates the theoretical optimal return, especially when the dimension to sample size ratio p/n is large. Bai, Liu, and Wong (2009) propose a...

This paper investigates hedge funds' ability to time industry-specific returns and shows that funds' timing ability in the manufacturing industry improves their future performance, probability of survival, and ability to attract more capital. The results indicate that best industry-timing hedge...

We quantify disagreement about the economy with ex-ante measures of divergence of opinion among economic forecasters and investigate if economic disagreement has a significant impact on the cross-sectional pricing of individual stocks. We find a significant disagreement premium of 7.2% per...

This paper proposes the spectral corrected methodology to estimate the Global Minimum Variance Portfolio (GMVP) for the high dimensional data. In this paper, we analysis the limiting properties of the spectral corrected GMVP estimator as the dimension and the number of the sample set increase to...

Contrary to the theoretical principle that higher risk is compensated with higher expected return, the literature shows that low-risk stocks outperform high-risk stocks. Using a large-scale household dataset, we provide an explanation for this puzzling result that the anomalous negative...

In this paper, we propose a Markov Chain Quasi-Monte Carlo (MCQMC) approach for Bayesian estimation of a discrete-time version of the stochastic volatility (SV) model. The Bayesian approach represents a feasible way to estimate SV models. Under the conventional Bayesian estimation method for SV...

This paper investigates the role of high-order moments in the estimation of conditional value at risk (VaR). We use the skewed generalized t distribution (SGT) with time-varying parameters to provide an accurate characterization of the tails of the standardized return distribution. We allow the...

Due to the near unit-root behavior of interest rates, the movements of individual interest-rate series are inherently difficult to forecast. In this paper, we propose an innovative way of applying dynamic term structure models to forecast interest-rate movements. Instead of directly forecasting...

A conditional asset pricing model with risk and uncertainty implies that the time-varying exposures of equity portfolios to the market and uncertainty factors carry positive risk premiums. The empirical results from the size, book-to-market, and industry portfolios as well as individual stocks...

This paper investigates the significance of dynamic conditional beta in predicting the cross-sectional variation in expected stock returns. The results indicate that the time-varying conditional beta is alive and well in the cross-section of daily stock returns. Portfolio-level analyses and...