We assess quantitatively the effect of exogenous reductions in fertility on output per capita. Our simulation model allows for effects that run through schooling, the size and age structure of the population, capital accumulation, parental time input into child-rearing, and crowding of fixed...

GDP growth is often measured poorly for countries and rarely measured at all for cities. We propose a readily available proxy: satellite data on lights at night. Our statistical framework uses light growth to supplement existing income growth measures. The framework is applied to countries with...

"For United States annual data that include World War II, the estimated multiplier for temporary defense spending is 0.4–0.5 contemporaneously and 0.6-0.7 over 2 years. If the change in defense spending is "permanent" (gauged by Ramey's defense-news variable), the multipliers are higher by...

This paper examines the robustness of explanatory variables in cross-country economic growth regressions. It employs a novel approach, Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates ¤ (BACE), which constructs estimates as a weighted average of OLS estimates for every possible combination of included...

William Brock and Steven Durlauf's article nicely summarizes some of the recent research on Bayesian model averaging. They make a number of important points. One is that the empirics of growth face three key problems: model uncertainty, parameter uncertainty, and endogeneity. They argue that...

We assess quantitatively the effect of exogenous reductions in fertility on output per capita. Our simulation model allows for effects that run through schooling, the size and age structure of the population, capital accumulation, parental time input into child-rearing, and crowding of fixed...