We re-examine Sephton and Larsen's (1991) conclusion that cointegration-based tests for market efficiency suffer from temporal instability. We improve upon their research by i) including a drift term in the vector error correction model (VECM) in the Johansen procedure, ii) correcting the...

This paper considers two potential rationales for the apparent absence of mean reversion in real exchange rates in the post-Bretton Woods era. We allow for (i) fractional integration and (ii) a double mean shift in the real exchange rate process. These methods, applied to CPI-based rates for 17...

Does merger and acquisition (M&A) activity occur in waves, that is, are there oscillations between low and high levels of M&A activity? The answer to this question is important in developing univariate as well as structural models of explaining and forecasting the stochastic behavior of M&A...

We employ a nonlinear, nonparametric method to model the stochastic behavior of changes in several short and long term U.S. interest rates. We apply a nonlinear autoregression to the series using the locally weighted regression (LWR) estimation method, a nearest-neighbor method, and evaluate the...

This paper compares six term structure estimation methods empirically in terms of zero and forward rate curves as well as ex ante price and yield prediction accuracy. Specifically, we use daily government bond quotations to generate true out-of-sample prediction errors based on the model's...

This paper investigates the presence of fractal dynamics in stock returns. We improve upon existing literature in two ways: i) instead of rescaled-range analysis, we use the more efficient semi- nonparametric procedure suggested by Geweke and Porter-Hudak (GPH, 1983), and ii) to ensure...

We test for long memory in 3- and 6-month daily returns series on Eurocurrency deposits denominated in Japanese yen (Euroyen). The fractional differencing parameter is estimated using the spectral regression method. The conflicting evidence obtained from the application of tests against a unit...

Using spectral regression and exact maximum likelihood methods, we test for long memory dynamics in the traded goods prices for the G7 countries, as measured in their import and export price indices. Significant and robust evidence of fractional dynamics with long memory features is found in...

We investigate the low frequency properties of three- and six- month rates for Eurocurrency deposits denominated in eight major currencies with specific emphasis on fractional dynamics. Using the fractional integration testing procedure suggested by Geweke and Porter-Hudak (1983), we find that...

We employ threshold cointegration methodology to model the policy problem solved by the Federal Reserve System in their manipulation of the discount rate under a reserves target operating procedure utilized since October 1979. The infrequent and discrete adjustments that characterize movements...