One of the key components of financial risk management is risk measurement. This typically requires modeling, estimating and forecasting tail-related quantities of the asset returns’ conditional distribution. Recent advances in the financial econometrics literature have developed several...

This paper proposes a novel extension of log and exponential GARCH models, where time-varying parameters are approximated by orthogonal polynomial systems. These expansions enable us to add and study the effects of market-wide and external international shocks on the volatility forecasts and...