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International effects of euro area versus US policy uncertainty : a FAVAR approach

Belke, Ansgar; Osowski, Thomas - 2017

prices, equity prices, and interest rates. Uncertainty shocks cause deeper recessions in Continental Europe (except Germany …) than in Anglo-Saxon countries. This pattern is compatible with the view that continental Europe still suffers from … Auswirkungen. In dieser Hinsicht erweist sich die Schweiz als das am stärksten betroffene Land in Europa außerhalb der Eurozone …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011640939

International effects of euro area versus US policy uncertainty : a FAVAR approach

Belke, Ansgar; Osowski, Thomas - 2017

prices, equity prices and interest rates. Uncertainty shocks cause deeper recessions in Continental Europe (except Germany …) than in Anglo- Saxon countries. This pattern is compatible with the view that continental Europe still suffers from …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012110907

International effects of euro area versus US policy uncertainty : a FAVAR approach

Belke, Ansgar; Osowski, Thomas - 2017

prices, equity prices and interest rates. Uncertainty shocks cause deeper recessions in Continental Europe (except Germany …) than in Anglo-Saxon countries. This pattern is compatible with the view that continental Europe still suffers from …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011691548

Equilibrium real interest rates and secular stagnation : an empirical analysis for euro area member countries

Belke, Ansgar; Klose, Jens - 2016

Is secular stagnation a valid concern for Euro Area countries? We tackle this question using the well-established Laubach-Williams model to estimate the unobservable equilibrium real interest rate and compare it to the actual real rate. We apply our approach to twelve Euro Area countries, since...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011500118

Equilibrium real interest rates, secular stagnation, and the financial cycle : empirical evidence for euro-area member countries

Belke, Ansgar; Klose, Jens - 2018

Is the Euro area as a whole, or are individual Euro-area member countries facing a period of sustained lower economic growth, a phenomenon known as secular stagnation? We tackle this question by estimating equilibrium real interest rates and comparing them to actual real rates. Since the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012131206

Safe haven flows, natural interest rates and secular stagnation : empirical evidence for euro area countries

Belke, Ansgar; Klose, Jens - 2019

This article introduces a new measure to capture safe haven flows for twelve Euro area countries. Since those flows are suspected to alter the natural rate of interest, which is at the heart of the discussion whether certain countries face a period of secular stagnation, we estimate the natural...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012134351

QE in the euro area : has the PSPP benefited peripheral bonds?

Belke, Ansgar; Gros, Daniel - 2019

The asset purchase programme of the euro area, active between 2015 and 2018, constitutes an interesting special case of Quantitative Easing (QE) because the ECB’s Public Sector Purchase Programme (PSPP) involved the purchase of peripheral euro area government bonds, which were clearly not...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011994801

Forecasting ECB policy rates with different monetary policy rules

Belke, Ansgar; Klose, Jens - 2019

This article compares two types of monetary policy rules - the Taylor-Rule and the Orphanides-Rule - with respect to their forecasting properties for the policy rates of the European Central Bank. In this respect the basic rules, results from estimated models and augmented rules are compared....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012063951

Did interest rates at the zero lower bound affect lending of commercial banks? : evidence for the euro area

Belke, Ansgar; Dreger, Christian - 2019

The paper examines the bank lending activities of banks in a low interest rate environment. External financing of small- and medium-sized enterprises in the euro area primarily takes place via bank loans and not through capital markets. Based on the Bankscope database, bank balance sheet data is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012063954

Interest rate bands of inaction and play-hysteresis in domestic investment : evidence for the euro area

Belke, Ansgar; Frenzel Baudisch, Coletta; Göcke, Matthias - 2019

The interest rate represents an important monetary policy tool to steer investment in order to reach price stability. Therefore, implications of the exact form and magnitude of the interest rate-investment nexus for the European Central Bank’s effectiveness in a low interest rate environment...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012063971