This article compares two types of monetary policy rules - the Taylor-Rule and the Orphanides-Rule - with respect to their forecasting properties for the policy rates of the European Central Bank. In this respect the basic rules, results from estimated models and augmented rules are compared....

This article compares two types of monetary policy rules - the Taylor-Rule and the Orphanides-Rule - with respect to their forecasting properties for the policy rates of the European Central Bank. In this respect the basic rules, results from estimated models and augmented rules are compared....

Monetary policies of the ECB and US Fed can be characterised by "Taylor rules", that is both central banks seem to be setting rates by taking into account the "output gap" and inflation. We also set up and tested Taylor rules which incorporate money growth and the euro-dollar exchange rate,...

We assess the differences that emerge in Taylor rule estimations for the ECB when using ex-post data instead of real time forecasts and vice versa. We argue that previous comparative studies in this field mixed up two separate effects. First, the differences resulting from the use of ex-post and...

We develop a roadmap of how the ECB should further reduce the volume of money (money supply) and roll back credit easing in order to prevent inflation. The exits should be step-by-step rather than one-off . Communicating about the exit strategy must be an integral part of the exit strategy....

A series of crisis and emergency interest rate cuts has brought global interest rates towards zero and government debt to historical records. The paper discusses the exit options from unconventional monetary policies and unsustainable government debt. First, the paper sheds light on the...

A series of crises and emergency interest rate cuts has brought global interest rates towards zero and government debt to historical records. The paper discusses the exit options from unconventional monetary policies and unsustainable government debt. First, the paper sheds light on the...

We assess the differences that emerge in Taylor rule estimations for the ECB when using expost data instead of real time forecasts and vice versa. We argue that previous comparative studies in this field mixed up two separate effects. First, the differences resulting from the use of ex-post and...

We develop a roadmap of how the ECB should further reduce the volume of money (money supply) and roll back credit easing in order to prevent inflation. The exits should be step-bystep rather than one-off. Communicating about the exit strategy must be an integral part of the exit strategy. Price...

We assess differences that emerge in Taylor rule estimations for the Fed and the ECB before and after the start of the subprime crisis. For this purpose, we apply an explicit estimate of the equilibrium real interest rate and of potential output in order to account for variations within these...