Blair, Robert; Blattman, Christopher; Hartman, Alexandra - 2017
This paper tests the feasibility of local-level violence forecasting. We apply standard prediction models to new data … from 242 Liberian communities to investigate whether it is to possible to predict outbreaks of local violence with … violence in 2010 using 2008 risk factors. We then made forecasts of violence in 2012, before collecting data. Our model …