Trading volume and order flow have both been closely associated with informed trader activity in the market microstructure literature. Using theory that explains regular intraday patterns in trading data, we transform these two variables into proxies for private information and examine their...

Relatively there is little empirical research that has been taken to understand how the underlying economy affects customers’ subsequent financial product purchase behaviours. A better understanding of this influence and being able to predict the probability of purchasing are important for...

Was the East Asian crisis just a creditor panic with a mad scramble for liquidity that brought the banking system to its knees and the region's much-vaunted 'economic miracle' to a standstill? Or was the miracle indeed flawed by fundamental problems in asset prices and resource allocation? After...

Credit market imperfections have been blamed for the depth and persistence of the Great Depression in the USA. Could similar mechanisms have played a role in ending the East Asian miracle? After a brief account of the nature of the recent crisis, we use a model of highly levered...

Two key issues are examined in an integrated framework: the emergence of global imbalances and the precautionary motive for accumulating reserves. Standard models of general equilibrium would predict modest current account surpluses in the emerging markets if they face higher risk than the US...

The promising prospect of a ?New Economy? in the US attracted substantial equity inflows in the late 1990s, helping to finance the country?s burgeoning current account deficit. After peaking in 2000, however, US stocks fell by some 8 trillion dollars in value. To assess the welfare effects of...

Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models have begun to dominate the field of macroeconomic theory and policy-making. These models describe the evolution of macroeconomic activity as a recursive sequence of outcomes based upon the optimal decision rules of rational households, firms...

Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models have begun to dominate the field of macroeconomic theory and policy-making. These models describe the evolution of macroeconomic activity as a recursive sequence of outcomes based upon the optimal decision rules of rational households, firms...

In order to examine the optimum currency area case for EMU, we estimate structural VARs in output, the real exchange rate and prices for 14 EU countries and a small control sample. Using quarterly data since the end of bretton Woods, we find that (1) the data are strongly correlated for the...

Following Blinder's (1997) suggestion, we examine the implications for the optimal interest rate rule following the relaxation of the assumption that the policymaker's loss function is quadratic. We investigate deviations from quadratics for both symmetric and asymmetric preferences for a single...