Trading volume and order flow have both been closely associated with informed trader activity in the market microstructure literature. Using theory that explains regular intraday patterns in trading data, we transform these two variables into proxies for private information and examine their...

Relatively there is little empirical research that has been taken to understand how the underlying economy affects customers’ subsequent financial product purchase behaviours. A better understanding of this influence and being able to predict the probability of purchasing are important for...

The fact that the Basel Accord formula is based on a corporate credit risk model and the mis-rating of mortgage backed securities which led to the credit crunch have highlighted that developing credit risk models for portfolios of retail loans is far less advanced than the equivalent modelling...

This paper addresses the risk cutoff policies of a retail bank whose objectives are to maximize return on equity for shareholders and live within regulatory capital requirements, such as those of the Basel Capital Accord, to meet unexpected default losses. It investigates the changes that have...

In this article we describe the construction and implementation of a pricing model for a leading UK mortgage lender. The crisis in mortgage lending has highlighted the importance of incorporating default risk into such pricing decisions b y mortgage lenders. In this case the underlying default...

Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models have begun to dominate the field of macroeconomic theory and policy-making. These models describe the evolution of macroeconomic activity as a recursive sequence of outcomes based upon the optimal decision rules of rational households, firms...

Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models have begun to dominate the field of macroeconomic theory and policy-making. These models describe the evolution of macroeconomic activity as a recursive sequence of outcomes based upon the optimal decision rules of rational households, firms...

In order to examine the optimum currency area case for EMU, we estimate structural VARs in output, the real exchange rate and prices for 14 EU countries and a small control sample. Using quarterly data since the end of bretton Woods, we find that (1) the data are strongly correlated for the...

Following Blinder's (1997) suggestion, we examine the implications for the optimal interest rate rule following the relaxation of the assumption that the policymaker's loss function is quadratic. We investigate deviations from quadratics for both symmetric and asymmetric preferences for a single...

Since the global credit crunch, lenders have recognized how critical it is to assess the default risk of portfolios of consumer borrowing under different economic environments. We describe a Markov chain model for revolving consumer credit accounts based on consumers' behavioral scores that...