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This paper examines the consequences of using "real-time" data for business cycle analysis in Germany based on a novel …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005083158
We report results on the ex ante predictability of monthly excess stock returns in Germany using real-time and revised …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005083182
Based on a panel of German professional forecasts for 1970 to 2002 we find that growth and inflation forecasts are unbiased and weakly, but not strongly efficient. Besides the effect of diverging forecasting dates, no other substantial differences in forecasting quality are found among...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005069095