This paper examines return predictability when the investor is uncertain about the right state variables. A novel feature of the model averaging approach used in this paper is to account for finite-sample bias of the coefficients in the predictive regressions. Drawing on an extensive...

We show that the FX impact of monetary policy has been growing significantly. We use a high-frequency event study of the joint response of fixed income instruments and exchange rates to monetary policy news from seven major central banks spanning 2004-2015. News affecting short maturity bonds...

We show that the FX impact of monetary policy has been growing significantly. We use a high-frequency event study of the joint response of fixed income instruments and exchange rates to monetary policy news from seven major central banks spanning 2004-2015. News affecting short maturity bonds...

This paper studies the international transmission of business cycles by developing a two-country real business-cycle model and confronting it with a broad set of empirical observations. These observations include variances and covariances of output, labor, consumption, employment, and investment...

This paper studies the international transmission of business cycles by developing a two-country real business-cycle model and confronting it with a broad set of empirical observations. These observations include variances and covariances of output, labor, consumption, employment, and investment...