The general macroeconomic situation and weak inflation dynamics justified quantitative easing (QE) in the euro area. Doubts have emerged about its effectiveness as inflation has remained weak. However, we do not know where inflation would have been without QE and the still large slack in the...

Quantitative easing (QE) affects banks’ profitability in three main ways. First, as QE drives up bond prices, banks holding such bonds see their balance sheets strengthened. Second, QE reduces long-term yields and thereby reduces term spreads. With this, the lending-deposit ratio spread falls,...

As the global financial crisis unfolded, the European Central Bank (ECB) and other central banks greatly extended their monetary policy toolboxes and adjusted their operational frameworks. These unconventional monetary policies have left central banks with large balance sheets. As growth picks...

​This paper examines aggregated inflation expectations based on the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (ECB SPF). We analyse possible impacts of changing panel composition on short and long term point forecasts and forecast uncertainties using approach, which is based on a set of...

In this paper, we examine how professional forecasters' expectations and expectation uncertainty have reacted to the ECB's interest rate decisions and non-conventional monetary policy measures during the period 1999-2017. The analysis makes use of a conventional dif-in-dif type set up with...

This study examines aggregated short- and long-term inflation expectations in the unbalanced panel of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters. The focus of the study is on heterogeneity of expectations and changing panel composition. First, we compare two sub-groups of survey respondents...