Interest in the interface of nonstationarity and nonlinearity has been increasing in the econometric literature. This paper provides a formal method of testing for nonstationary long memory against the alternative of particular forms of nonlinerarity. The nonlinear models we consider are ESTAR...

The persistence properties of economic time series has been a primary object of investigation in a variety of guises since the early days of econometrics. This paper suggests investigating the persistence of processes conditioning on their history. In particular we suggest that examining the...

Current best practice in central banking views a high level of monetary policy predictability as desirable. A clear distinction, however, has to be made between short-term and longer-term predictability. While short-term predictability can be narrowly defined as the ability of the public to...

Current best practice in central banking views a high level of monetary policy predictability as desirable. A clear distinction, however, has to be made between short-term and longer-term predictability. While short-term predictability can be narrowly defined as the ability of the public to...

This paper presents a new stochastic volatility model which allows for persistent shifts in volatility of stock market returns, referred to as structural breaks. These shifts are endogenously driven by large return shocks (innovations), reflecting large pieces of market news. These shocks are...

Most work in the area of nonlinear econometric modelling is based on a single equation and assumes exogeneity of the explanatory variables. Recently, work by Caner and Hansen (2003) and Psaradakis, Sola, and Spagnolo (2004) has considered the possibility of estimating nonlinear models by methods...

In this paper we suggest a number of statistical tests based on neural network models, that are designed to be powerful against structural breaks in otherwise stationary time series processes while allowing for a variety of nonlinear specifications for the dynamic model underlying them. It is...

We build a time varying DSGE model with financial frictions in order to evaluate changes in the responses of the macroeconomy to financial friction shocks. Using US data, we find that the transmission of the financial friction shock to economic variables, such as output growth, has not changed...

Inflation has been well contained over the last decades in most industrialized countries. This implies, however, that memories of high inflation are likely to fade, because over time larger parts of the population have never experienced high inflation, whereas those who have might forget. This...