In this paper, we study mutual fund performance in terms of timing ability with daily data from 1998 to 2009. A novel timing model is proposed by incorporating the regime-switching framework into the Treynor and Mazuy (1966) model. The volatility follows a generalized autoregressive conditional...

We analyze time-series of investor expectations of future stock market returns from six data sources between 1963 and 2011. The six measures of expectations are highly positively correlated with each other, as well as with past stock returns and with the level of the stock market. However,...

This paper uses a new data set of quarterly portfolio holdings of 769 all-equity pension funds between 1985 and 1989 to evaluate the potential effect of their trading on stock prices. We address two aspects of trading by money managers: herding, which refers to buying (selling) the same stocks...

We show that option-implied jump tail risk estimated prior to earnings announcements strongly predicts post-earnings risk-adjusted abnormal stock returns. The predictive power of implied jump tail risk is particularly strong on extreme abnormal stock returns whose absolute values exceed 10%. The...

We analyze time-series of investor expectations of future stock market returns from six data sources between 1963 and 2011. The six measures of expectations are highly positively correlated with each other, as well as with past stock returns and with the level of the stock market. However,...