We generalize the Ferreira and Santa-Clara (2011) sum-of-the-parts method for forecasting stock market returns. Rather than summing the parts of stock returns, we suggest summing some of the frequency-decomposed parts. The proposed method signi cantly improves upon the original sum-of-the-parts...

We show that the out-of-sample forecast of the equity risk premium can be significantly improved by taking into account the frequency-domain relationship between the equity risk premium and several potential predictors. We consider fifteen predictors from the existing literature, for the...

Predictability is time and frequency dependent. We propose a new forecasting method - forecast combination in the frequency domain - that takes this fact into account. With this method we forecast the equity premium and real GDP growth rate. Combining forecasts in the frequency domain produces...

We introduce a frequency-domain forecast combination method that leverages time- and frequencydependent predictability to enhance forecast accuracy. By decomposing both the target variables (equity premium and real GDP growth) and predictor variables into distinct frequency components, this...

Any time series can be decomposed into cyclical components fluctuating at different frequencies. Accordingly, in this paper we propose a method to forecast the stock market's equity premium which exploits the frequency relationship between the equity premium and several predictor variables. We...

Any time series can be decomposed into cyclical components fluctuating at different frequencies. Accordingly, in this paper we propose a method to forecast the stock market's equity premium which exploits the frequency relationship between the equity premium and several predictor variables. We...

Predictability is time and frequency dependent. We propose a new forecasting method – forecast combination in the frequency domain – that takes this fact into account. With this method we forecast the equity premium and real GDP growth rate. Combining forecasts in the frequency domain...

This paper explores the out-of-sample forecasting performance of 25 equity premium predictors over a sample period from 1973 to 2023. While conventional time-series methods reveal that only one predictor demonstrates significant out-of-sample predictive power, frequency-domain analysis uncovers...