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We find that real interest rates paid on government debt depend significantly upon current and expected future levels of debt, in Europe as in the US. But this result only emerges when we condition on foreign interest rates, illustrating financial international integration. The previously strong...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013132441
The paper presents and estimates a model of the prices of oil and other storable commodities, a model that can be characterized as reflecting the carry trade. It focuses on speculative factors, here defined as the trade-off between interest rates on the one hand and market participants'...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013075796
On a Friday that the Fed announces a money supply greater than had been anticipated, interest rates move up in response. Why? One explanation is that the market perceives the fluctuation in the moneystock as an unintended deviation from the Fed's target growth rate that will be reversed in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012787486
Using a large sample of developing and industrialized economies during 1970-1999, this paper explores whether the choice of exchange rate regime affects the sensitivity of local interest rates to international interest rates. In most cases, we cannot reject full transmission of international...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013216098
It is often suggested that the slope of the term structure of interest rates contains information about the expected future path of inflation. Mishkin (1990) has recently shown that the spread between the 12-month and 3-month interest rates helps to predict the difference between the 12-month...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013235610
On a Friday that the Fed announces a money supply greater than had been anticipated, interest rates move up in response. Why? One explanation is that the market perceives the fluctuation in the moneystock as an unintended deviation from the Fed's target growth rate that will be reversed in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478056
Using a large sample of developing and industrialized economies during 1970-1999, this paper explores whether the choice of exchange rate regime affects the sensitivity of local interest rates to international interest rates. In most cases, we cannot reject full transmission of international...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469887
is to discover why interest rates have remained high, failing to converge to U.S. levels, despite capital market … liberalization and a resurgence of portfolio capital inflows during the second half of this sample period. Related questions are … whether portfolio capital flows are strong enough to equalize expected returns between these 'emerging markets' and the U …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473726