This paper investigates price jumps in commodity markets. We find that jumps are rare and extreme events but occur less frequently than in stock markets. Nonetheless, jump correlations across commodities can be high depending on the commodity sectors. Energy, metal and grains commodities show...

Increasing interconnectivity between electricity wholesale markets requires an efficient allocation scheme in order to provide access to scarce cross-border transmission capacities. The explicit schemes have primarily induced economically inefficient interconnector use given that flows have to...

In order to increase overall transparency on key operational information, power transmission system operators publish an increasing amount of fundamental data, including forecasts of electricity demand and available capacity. We develop a fundamental model for electricity prices which lends...

Funding costs are the costs to a (risky) institution of providing and managing its future cash flows in excess of, say, some risk free funding. For a single deterministic cash flow with maturity T these costs are essentially given by the ratio of the risky bond and the risk free bond. They can...

Looking at the valuation of a swap when funding costs and counterparty risk are neglected (i.e. when there is a unique risk free discounting curve), it is natural to ask "What is the discounting curve of a swap in the presence of funding costs, counterparty risk and/or collateralization?".In...

In this paper we develop a continuous time factor model of commodity prices that allows for higher order autoregression and moving average components. The need for these components is documented by analyzing the convenience yield's time series dynamics. Making use of the affine model structure,...

In this short note we give the concept of “funding markets” and “fund exchange processes” and show that the valuation of derivative products, including different means of funding, is analog to the valuation of multi-currency derivatives. Hence, modeling of different fundings is analog to...

In this note we discuss the definition, construction, interpolation and application of curves.We will discuss discount curves, a tool for the valuation of deterministic cash-flows and forward curves, a tool for the valuation of linear cash-flows of (possibly) stochastic indices.The aim of this...

We employ a large dataset of physical inventory data on 21 different commodities for the period 1993-2011 to empirically analyze the behaviour of commodity prices and their volatility as predicted by the theory of storage. We examine two main issues. First, we analyze the relationship between...

In this paper, we examine the temporal stability of the evidence for two commodity futures pricing theories. We investigate whether the forecast power of commodity futures can be attributed to the extent to which they exhibit seasonality and we also consider whether there are time varying...