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Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010191021
This essay links some of my own work on expectations, learning and bounded rationality to the inspiring ideas of Jean …-Michel Grandmont. In particular, my work on consistent expectations and behavioral learning equilibria may be seen as formalizations of … JMG's ideas of self-fulfilling mistakes. Some of our learning-to-forecast laboratory experiments with human subjects have …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011590425
This survey discusses behavioral and experimental macroeconomics emphasizing a complex systems perspective. The economy consists of boundedly rational heterogeneous agents who do not fully understand their complex environment and use simple decision heuristics. Central to our survey is the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011929804
This experiment compares the price dynamics and bubble formation in an asset market with a price adjustment rule in three treatments where subjects (1) submit a price forecast only, (2) choose quantity to buy/sell and (3) perform both tasks. We find deviation of the market price from the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011333057
Rational Expectations (RE) models have two crucial dimensions: 1) agents correctly forecast future prices given all available information, and 2) given expectations, agents solve optimization problems and these solutions in turn determine actual price realizations. Experimental testing of such...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014172774
Rational Expectations (RE) models have two crucial dimensions: agents correctly forecast future prices given all available information, and given expectations, agents solve optimization problems and these solutions in turn determine actual price realizations. Experimental testing of such models...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014175810
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010191433
We introduce Behavioral Learning Equilibria (BLE) into a multivariate linear framework and apply it to New Keynesian … Rational Expectations (REE), BLE, and constant gain learning models shows that the BLE model outperforms the REE benchmark and … is competitive with constant gain learning models in terms of in-sample and outof-sample fitness. Sample …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014496533
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011943242
experimental economies. We use a simple model of individual learning, with a performance-based evolutionary selection among … oscillatory behaviour and oscillatory convergence. A simple heterogeneous expectations switching model fits individual learning as …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013118974