Herwartz, Helmut; Kholodilin, Konstantin A. - DIW Berlin (Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung) - 2014
We assess the contribution of macroeconomic uncertainty -- approximated by the dispersion of the real GDP survey forecasts -- to the ex post and ex ante prediction of stock price bubbles. For a panel of six OECD economies covering 24 years, two alternative binary chronologies of bubble periods...