Using the standard linear model as a base, a unified theory of Bayesian Analyses of Cointegration Models is constructed. This is achieved by defining (natural conjugate) priors in the linear model and using the implied priors for the cointegration model. Using these priors, posterior results for...

A key application of long memory time series models concerns inflation. Long memory implies that shocks have a long-lasting effect. It may however be that empirical evidence for long memory is caused by neglecting one or more level shifts. Since such level shifts are not unlikely for inflation,...

We examine recursive out-of-sample forecasting of monthly postwarU.S. core inflation and log price levels. We use theautoregressive fractionally integrated moving average model withexplanatory variables (ARFIMAX). Our analysis suggests asignificant explanatory power of leading indicators...