The constant stream of real-time data releases by the government and several private sources diverts attention away from the very sound fundamentals that support strong sustainable U.S. economic expansion and provide substantial flexibility to withstand external shocks. Standard estimates of...

The President?s Advisory Panel on Tax Reform took on a very difficult task?to disentangle the complexities, sources of unfairness and economic distortions in current tax policy, and provide proposals for reform?and its final report is admirable in its intent and accomplishment (President?s...

After several years of progressively higher deficit projections, recent reports Indicate that the budget imbalance in the next several years will not be as large as projected earlier and that the FY1984 unified budget deficit will be lower than FY1983 deficit. The budget outlook could be worse,...

The economy is sound structurally, but weak cyclically. The probability of recession remains relatively low, as heightened business efficiencies and the Federal Reserve's disinflationary monetary policy have reduced potentially disruptive imbalances in the economy. However, the Fed's sustained...

The expansion is now in its sixth year, but it remains "young" in character, reflecting the sound structure of the economy. Presently, economic performance is well balanced, with the type of characteristics that may potentially disrupt sustained growth largely absent. In particular, there are no...

In recent years, federal spending and deficits have declined significantly as a percent of GNP, the earlier sharp rise in the federal debt-to-GNP ratio has been halted, and the huge primary deficit (budget deficit excluding net interest outlays) has been eliminated. More progress on reducing the...

The stated purposes of President Clinton's fiscal policy proposal are to provide short-run fiscal stimulus to "guarantee" the durability of the economic recovery, and cut the deficit while increasing outlays and subsidies for public and private investment and income maintenance. Although well...

The cyclical aspects of recent economic performance are well-known and disappointing: after falling 1.6 percent from third quarter 1990 through first quarter 1991, real GDP has risen very gradually for three quarters and, aided by the recent monetary easing, the economy is mounting a stronger...

Although the foundations that traditionally generate a strong economic rebound are in place, the recovery will continue to be very gradual through year-end. Real GDP is projected to grow at an approximate 2.0 percent annualized rate, although Hurricane Andrew will adversely impact GDP in the...

The deterioration in the budget outlook has been startling, and the response of policymakers has been equally disappointing. The deficit has zoomed; it will exceed $200 billion in Fiscal Year 1990 and is estimated to be approximately $270 billion in FY1991, $200 billion excluding the additional...