We perform a comprehensive examination of the recursive, comparative predictive performance of a number of linear and non-linear models for UK stock and bond returns. We estimate Markov switching, threshold autoregressive (TAR), and smooth transition autoregressive (STR) regime switching models,...

We perform a comprehensive examination of the recursive, comparative predictive performance of a number of linear and non-linear models for UK stock and bond returns. We estimate Markov switching, threshold autoregressive (TAR), and smooth transition autoregressive (STR) regime switching models,...

This paper considers whether the cyclical component of the log dividend-price and price-earnings ratios contain forecast power for stock returns. While the levels of these series contain slow moving information for predicting long horizon returns, for short-horizon returns it is the relative...

The nature of the relation between stock returns and the three monetary variables of interest rates (bond yields), inflation and money supply growth, while oft studied, is one that remains unclear. We argue that the nature of the relation changes over time, and this variation is largely driven...

We forecast quarterly US stock returns using eighteen predictor variables both individually and in multivariate regressions, with the former also used in forecast combinations. Using rolling and recursive approaches, we consider a range of statistical and economic evaluation measures. We...

This paper examines the relationship between stock prices and commodity prices and whether this can be used to forecast stock returns. As both prices are linked to expected future economic performance they should exhibit a long-run relationship. Moreover, changes in sentiment towards commodity...

Changes in stock returns arise from changes in expected future cash flow growth and expected future discount rates. However, which variables proxy for those changes remains unknown. This paper considers twenty-five variables that are arranged into five groups and examines both in-sample...

This paper examines the predictive ability of several stock price ratios, stock return dispersion and distribution for individual firm level stock returns. Analysis typically focusses on market level returns, however, for the asset pricing model that underlies predictability to hold, firm-level...

Using data for forty markets, this paper examines the nature and possible causes of time-variation within the stock return-dividend yield predictive regression. The results in this paper show that there is significant time-variation in the predictive equation for returns and that such variation...