How high can public debt rise without compromising fiscal solvency? We answer this question using a stochastic ability-to-pay model of sovereign default in which risk-neutral investors lend to a government that displays "fiscal fatigue," because its ability to increase primary balances cannot...

This paper looks at fiscal solvency and public debt sustainability in both emerging market and advanced countries. Evidence of fiscal solvency, in the form of a robust positive conditional relationship between public debt and the primary fiscal balance, is established in both groups of...

This paper looks at fiscal solvency and public debt sustainability in both emerging market and advanced countries. Evidence of fiscal solvency, in the form of a robust positive conditional relationship between public debt and the primary fiscal balance, is established in both groups of...

This paper analyzes the macroeconomic effects of a variety of exogenous and policy-induced real disturbances when the authorities target the level of the real exchange rate. It first discusses the implications particularly for inflation and the current account of targeting the rate at an...

The workhorse open-economy macro model suggests that capital inflows are contractionary because they appreciate the currency and reduce net exports. Emerging-market policymakers however believe that inflows lead to credit booms and rising output, and the evidence appears to go their way. To...

The workhorse open-economy macro model suggests that capital inflows are contractionary because they appreciate the currency and reduce net exports. Emerging market policy makers however believe that inflows lead to credit booms and rising output, and the evidence appears to go their way. To...

The workhorse open-economy macro model suggests that capital inflows are contractionary because they appreciate the currency and reduce net exports. Emerging market policy makers however believe that inflows lead to credit booms and rising output, and the evidence appears to go their way. To...

This paper revisits the bipolar prescription for exchange rate regime choice and asks two questions: are the poles of hard pegs and pure floats still safer than the middle? And where to draw the line between safe floats and risky intermediate regimes? Our findings, based on a sample of 50 EMEs...

The relevance of the exchange rate regime for macroeconomic performance remains a key issue in international macroeconomics. We use a comprehensive dataset covering nine regime-types for one hundred forty countries over thirty years to examine the link between the regime, inflation, and growth....

In this paper a general equilibrium intertemporal model, with optimizing consumers and producers, is developed to analyze how the anticipation of future import tariffs affects real exchange rates and the current account. The model is completely real, and considers a small open economy that...