This report evaluates the U.S. and world sugar markets for 2011-2021 using the Global Sugar Policy Simulation Model. This analysis is based on assumptions about general economic conditions, agricultural policies, population growth, weather conditions, and technological changes. Both the U.S. and...

The first decade of the 21st century has perhaps witnessed more structural change in commodity futures markets than all previous decades combined. Not only have trading volumes and open interest increased markedly, but this time period also saw historic changes in both trading and participants....

The traditional necessary condition for futures market inefficiency is the existence of alternative forecasting methods that produce mean squared forecast errors smaller than the futures market. Here, a more exacting requirement for futures market efficiency is proposed-forecast encompassing....

Theoretical noise trader models suggest that uninformed traders can impact market prices. However, these models' conclusions depend crucially on the assumed specification for noise trader demand. This research seeks to empirically determine the appropriate demand specification for uninformed...

Mailbox milk prices from a representative dairy operation in Illinois are used to gauge the farm-level hedging effectiveness of Class III milk futures. The results indicate a hedge ratio of 0.85 can reduce price risk by over 90%. The importance of seasonal basis components is highlighted.

This report evaluates the U.S. and world sugar markets for 1997-2007 by using the World Sugar Policy Simulation Model. This analysis is based on assumptions about general economic conditions, agricultural policies, weather conditions, and technological changes. Both the U.S. and world sugar...

This report evaluates the U.S. and world sugar markets for 1999-2009 by using the Global Sugar Policy Simulation Model. This analysis is based on assumptions about general economic conditions, agricultural policies, population growth, weather conditions, and technological changes. Both the U.S....

This report evaluates the U.S. and world wheat markets for the 1998-2008 period by using the World Wheat Policy Simulation Model. This analysis is based on a series of assumptions about general economic conditions, agricultural policies, the weather, and technological change. Both the U.S. and...