The first decade of the 21st century has perhaps witnessed more structural change in commodity futures markets than all previous decades combined. Not only have trading volumes and open interest increased markedly, but this time period also saw historic changes in both trading and participants....

The traditional necessary condition for futures market inefficiency is the existence of alternative forecasting methods that produce mean squared forecast errors smaller than the futures market. Here, a more exacting requirement for futures market efficiency is proposed-forecast encompassing....

Theoretical noise trader models suggest that uninformed traders can impact market prices. However, these models' conclusions depend crucially on the assumed specification for noise trader demand. This research seeks to empirically determine the appropriate demand specification for uninformed...

Mailbox milk prices from a representative dairy operation in Illinois are used to gauge the farm-level hedging effectiveness of Class III milk futures. The results indicate a hedge ratio of 0.85 can reduce price risk by over 90%. The importance of seasonal basis components is highlighted.

This research examines the lead-lag relationships between futures prices, prices from a cash forward market, and spot prices for two forest product markets. Results suggest that for 2x4 lumber, the forward market provides some level of price discovery, but futures play a dominant price discovery...

Cash forward contracting is a common, and often preferred, means of managing price risk for agribusinesses. Despite this, little is known about the performance of cash forward markets, in particular the role they play in price discovery. The lumber market provides a unique case for examining...

Agricultural risk managers need forecasts of price volatility that are accurate and meaningful. This is especially true given the greater emphasis on firm level risk measurement and management (e.g., Value-at-Risk and Enterprise Risk Management). Implied volatility is known to provide a readily...

A survey was used to gauge consumer preferences toward four fresh pork attributes: juiciness, tenderness, marbling, and leanness. The survey elicited consumer willingness-to-pay a premium for an improvement in these attributes. Approximately one-half of the respondents were willing to pay some...

The traditional necessary condition for futures market inefficiency is the existence of alternative forecasting methods that produce mean squared forecast errors smaller than the futures market. Here, a more exacting requirement for futures market efficiency is proposedforecast encompassing....