Changes in interest rates, inflation, and exchange rates are the main components of macroeconomic risks (financial risks) in projects evaluation. However, the conduct of monetary policy as well as its impact on the economic environment is seldom considered as an important component of...

This paper examines the monetary policy transmission mechanism in four systemically important economies. The impact of monetary policy is found to be broadly comparable for China, the US, the Eurozone, and Japan. Identifying a role for the financial sector is essential to unpacking various...

This paper reconsiders the narratives surrounding Japan's economic performance since the 1980s in relation to the experiences of the U.S. and the Eurozone. There are important differences between these three economies and some striking parallels. It is found that the poor reputation of the Bank...

For the first time since the 1930s, deflation in both goods and asset prices poses as much, or more, of a threat than does inflation. In this paper we explore public and policy maker perceptions and reactions to deflation covering the period from the late 19th century until the present. We also...

There is no consensus over the importance of "global forces" on inflation. This study explores the role of structural breaks in the inflation process, and their timing, whether it is common across countries, and the extent to which "global forces" are relevant. Three conclusions stand out....

We evaluate monetary policy divergence in the G4. A Taylor rule is extended that admits a global element and also allows for unconventional monetary policy to be reflected in a shadow policy rate. We propose a policy divergence index based on observed, fitted, or shadow policy rates but which...

This paper argues that a measure of lending conditions - Senior Loan Officer (SLO) surveys - offers important insights into the monetary transmission mechanism. Using a Global VAR (GVAR) and SLO survey data from 16 countries, we document bank lending standards' significant role in explaining the...

In this paper we provide an estimate of the likelihood of conflict between the federal government and the Bundesbank for the 1989 - 1998 period. We rely on a novel proxy for the impact of public communication by Bundesbank officials on the probability of conflict, in addition to interest rate,...

Transparent communication is a prerequisite for delivering an effective monetary policy. In this paper, we examine over 3000 speeches from central bankers to investigate the topics euro area national banks and the ECB most frequently talk about. Text-based ideal point analysis enables us to...

Monetary policy decisions are typically taken after a committee has deliberated and voted on a proposal. However, there are well-known risks associated with committee-based decisions. In this paper we examine the record of the shadow Monetary Policy Council in Canada. Given the structure of the...