Using German data this study applies an unobserved-components approach to disentangle the unemployment rate into a (stochastic) trend and a cyclical part and to estimate the influence of these components on labor participation. The persistent trend component of unemployment, which triggers...

The paper investigates the predictive power of a new survey implemented by the Federal Employment Agency (FEA) for forecasting German unemployment in the short run. Every month, the CEOs of the FEA’s regional agencies are asked about their expectations of future labor market developments. We...

This paper studies the conditional patterns of unemployment dynamics in Germany. We employ a structural VAR model and identify a technology shock and two policy shocks by using standard restrictions. Interestingly, the worker reallocation process varies substantially with the identified shocks....

Although industrial production in Germany picked up again significantly with the recovery from the Corona crisis, supply bottlenecks for raw materials and intermediate products such as semiconductors became increasingly noticeable over 2021. In this article, we examine how these obstacles affect...

In der Herbstprognose des IAB wird der Effekt der seit Jahresmitte 2015 deutlich erhöhten Flüchtlingszuwanderung auf die jahresdurchschnittliche Arbeitslosigkeit 2016 auf +130.000 Personen geschätzt. In diesem Dokument werden Szenariorechnungen auf Basis des Flüchtlingsmodells des IAB...