The constant stream of real-time data releases by the government and several private sources diverts attention away from the very sound fundamentals that support strong sustainable U.S. economic expansion and provide substantial flexibility to withstand external shocks. Standard estimates of...

At our first meeting, ten years ago, we offered a medium-term strategy for ending inflation and restoring productive growth to its long-term average. The rate of inflation for the previous three years was, then, about 5 1/2%. The average rate of money growth -- currency and checkable deposits --...

The last twenty years offer remarkable evidence about the irrelevance of some political labels. The drift into permanent inflation, initiated by a "liberal" Administration under President Johnson, was continued under three "conservative" Administrations. The drift in our budget "policies" even...

The annual growth of real output exceeded 9% in the second quarter of 1983, and the most recent statistics suggest very strong growth in the current quarter as well. Though the inflation rate has bottomed out, it does not yet show any major reacceleration. With unemployment declining in line...

After several years of progressively higher deficit projections, recent reports Indicate that the budget imbalance in the next several years will not be as large as projected earlier and that the FY1984 unified budget deficit will be lower than FY1983 deficit. The budget outlook could be worse,...

The expansion is now in its sixth year, but it remains "young" in character, reflecting the sound structure of the economy. Presently, economic performance is well balanced, with the type of characteristics that may potentially disrupt sustained growth largely absent. In particular, there are no...

My bottom line in answering the question that makes up the title of this paper is: 1) Disciplined monetary policy over the last few years has reduced U.S. inflation another notch, leaving two to three percentage points to go to achieve price stability; 2) However, the current situation is...

A number of different economic and political conditions have contributed to the sluggish rate of the current economic recovery; some of these, such as substantial defense cuts, are widely recognized whereas others are poorly understood. This latter category includes the role of inflation and...

The course of the economy this year may have detoured slightly, but has not been derailed by the crisis in Middle Eastern deserts. The U.S. economy was already flirting with recession before Iraq invaded Kuwait. The short-run effects of the invasion create the worst of all worlds from the...

Recently members of the research staff of the Board of Governors have constructed a model of the inflation process that has received considerable attention.' The purpose of this paper is to review critically the assumptions that are the basis of that inflation model and to examine a model of...