We outline a framework in which accounting “valuation anchors" could be connected to expected stock returns. Under two general conditions, expected log returns is a log- linear function of a valuation (market value-to-accounting) multiple and the expected growth in the valuation anchor. We...

We provide the first large-scale study of the performance of expected-return proxies (ERPs) internationally. Analyst-forecast-based ICCs are sparsely populated and not robustly associated with future returns. Earnings-model-forecast-based ICCs are well-populated, but are unreliable outside the...

The vast majority of U.S. public firms announce earnings in the post-close (between the closing bell and midnight, or PC) or the pre-open (between midnight and the opening bell, or PO). Prior literature generally treats PC and PO announcements as equivalent when measuring the market reaction to...

The same firm characteristics that help explain cross-sectional variation in expected stock returns, such as size, book-to-market and the earnings yield, also help explain cross-sectional variation in returns to trading in option-implied stock return volatility. This empirical phenomenon is...

This paper examines how changes in firms’ risk disclosures affect a key market measure of risk. Our proxy for changes in risk disclosures is the addition and removal of individual risk factors to firms’ 10-K annual filings, identified via textual analysis of the risk factors section. Our...

This study generates out-of-sample predictions from training data to construct investment portfolios that are mean-variance optimized and rebalanced daily to assess gains from incorporating signals based on post-earnings announcement drift (PEAD), the earnings announcement premium (EAP), and...

We study the use of firms' book-to-market ratios (B/M) in value investing and its implications for comovements in firms’ stock returns and trading volumes. We show B/M has become increasingly detached from common alternative valuation ratios over time while also becoming worse at forecasting...

The stock market generates less wealth than it appears. We show that total shareholder return (TSR), the standard measure of stock investor performance, substantially exaggerates returns earned by these investors in aggregate, and thus by most investors. The main reason: from investors'...