This paper examines return predictability when the investor is uncertain about the right state variables. A novel feature of the model averaging approach used in this paper is to account for finite-sample bias of the coefficients in the predictive regressions. Drawing on an extensive...

This paper estimates exchange rate pass-through of six major industrial countries using a time - varying parameter with stochastic volatility model. Exchange rate pass-through is divided into impacts of exchange rate fluctuations to import prices (first-stage pass-through) and those of import...